Issue 48.11
I wrote an article two and a half weeks ago about Black Friday pricing which is always one of the most challenging I write each year. To meet publication deadlines, I have to write about what people need to know well in advance of the information actually being available. I spent a little time comparing what actually occurred over the Thanksgiving weekend in electronics retailing and found that I actually did pretty well. The only things I missed were a few that actually sold for less than I had predicted. If I could predict the stock market that well, I could make a lot of money.
For most of us interested in hi-tech, it is helpful to take a little time and effort to figure out what is coming and how it might impact our lives. I am not perfect at it, but I will share with you some of the things I watch that seem to usually help.
The first thing to do is look at history. The trend for many years now has been that more power, more features and more speed along with smaller size tends to cost less and less over time. The computer I carry in my pocket (IPod touch) cost $300 and is more powerful in most ways than the computers that sent men to the moon, cost millions and literally took up space the size of a building.
We have to balance that trend with the fact that some of what has made that possible is changing. Production and assembly have gradually shifted to places like China, India, Mexico and the Philippines. Very little is even assembled in the US anymore. Cheap labor (even slave labor) goes into almost every technology device you buy. The dollar and the slow economy have created enormous pressure on companies to produce for less and they keep finding ways to do it – often with a human cost and a drop in quality.
Because of our staggering national debt, the power of the dollar is diminishing. China owns much of that debt and is less and less inclined to give us special treatment as to pricing and availability. The standard of living is rising in the countries that have made cheap labor available so companies either have to pay higher wages or find new sources of cheap labor – both of which will raise prices to the consumer. We are already seeing this in computers even as other tech prices stay low or even drop such as with large screen tvs. I predict (with some trepidation) that over the next two years, we will see a significant rise in prices on most tech gear or a continued lowering of quality.
As far as new ideas go, the tablet idea was predictable as we saw all the components being developed. Apple created the IPad which has been very popular but expensive. LED displays and miniaturization of computer components have dropped in price and risen in availability. The android operating system was developed for cell-phones, but was very capable of running real programs. All these things indicated challengers to the IPad would emerge at significantly lower prices. You can do the same with other possibilities. I may do that in another article. In the meantime, always remember to back up anything important to you.
Shaun McCausland has worked in the computer industry for over 30 years, 20 years of it locally with Bits ‘N’ Bytes and Musicomp and currently does in-home and on-site computer consultation, service, training and repair. If you have questions you can reach him at 435-668-7118 or through his website at www.bitsnbytescomputers.com.