Issue 6.16
By the time you read this, the Iowa Caucuses (or the Hawkeye Cauci as they are sometimes called) will be history and we will know who the front-runners are for the presidency to be decided in November. Why does one state so far removed from the general election have such an influence? It is mostly because of media saturation and expectation as well as a too-short attention span from the voting public.
In order to get this article out this week, it was written before the caucuses are held, but the polls indicate that either Trump or Cruz will likely win the Republican side (with Rubio as a dark horse) and that the race between Sanders and Clinton is neck and neck. My personal perception is that Trump and Clinton will probably win barring last minute mistakes or announcements. It could also be affected by the weather as a storm is coming.
What does that mean for the presidential election? In many election years, the people who win in Iowa go on to become the nominees for their party. However, that is less true in the last few elections than previously. For example, Mike Huckabee won in 2008 and Rick Santorum won in 2012 and neither became the Republican candidate. On the other hand, Barack Obama won in 2008 and it propelled him to the nomination and the Presidency. Bernie Sanders is making an effort to follow the Obama game plan and repeat his success.
Those that come in a close second as is likely for both major parties, are not necessarily going to lose out in the long run, but winning comes with a lot of money, confidence and encouragement for supporters and campaigns alike. The New Hampshire primary next week is also a big test and can make a real difference. A candidate that does well in both of these early tests gets much more attention from the news media. Those that don’t show up as a serious candidate by getting a significant number of votes in these two contests must either mount a serious campaign for the next few tests or essentially or actually drop out of the race. This will likely eliminate the third candidate on the Democrat side and a number of those on the Republican side.
Campaigns are expensive and time-consuming and if there is not a perception that the candidate can succeed in gaining the nomination, funds dry up and supporters start working for other candidates.
The question is asked if this is a good thing or a bad thing. On one hand, it is probably a good thing to winnow the list of candidates to a reasonable level. It becomes confusing and troublesome for voters to sift through four or five candidates that all say pretty much the same things and have a similar background whether that is conservative, liberal or libertarian. On the other hand, I have long maintained that our system and our citizens would be better served if we removed money and the connected special interests from our electoral process, concentrating instead on the policies and character of the candidates. We could do that much better than we are doing it now.
I believe the caucus system is viable and a very good opportunity for individuals to become involved in the political process on the local level. At least you can be heard by your friends and neighbors. You can also hear their concerns and feelings about the solutions.
Are these early elections good? I know that many people are hoping for a different alternative to what is being offered so far this year, but because money and media coverage are such a big part of successful campaigns (which I think is not good) it seems to be a necessary evil that we see the candidates in action and narrow the field before the conventions and crunch time. My advice is to be informed, ask hard questions and look at the records more than you listen to what they say. Stay tuned for more over the next few months.
Lynn West is a thinker, a teacher and a patriot. You can reach him through email at forgingthefuture2021@gmail.com or through this newspaper. Liberty is a state of being which must be continually created. These articles can help all of us discover the ways we can contribute to that outcome.